Champions League . Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Manchester United vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.1%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
21%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21%
20.9%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 1968 |
MUD
1 - 0
SHE
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1968 |
MUD
3 - 0
FUL
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1968 |
SOU
2 - 2
MUD
33%
25%
42%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1968 |
FUL
0 - 4
MUD
28%
25%
46%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1968 |
MUD
1 - 2
LIV
65%
21%
15%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 1968 |
RMA
2 - 1
UDL
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 1968 |
RMA
1 - 0
PON
82%
13%
6%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1968 |
FCB
1 - 1
RMA
52%
24%
25%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1968 |
RMA
2 - 0
ELC
78%
15%
8%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1968 |
SPA
2 - 1
RMA
37%
24%
39%
|
90 | 81 | 9 | -1 |