Manchester City vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.5%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.3%
4-0
6.6%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.2%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.1%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.1%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.2%
8.3%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.2%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
MAC
1 - 1
ARS
53%
22%
25%
|
93 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2012 |
RMA
3 - 2
MAC
80%
12%
7%
|
93 | 98 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2012 |
STO
1 - 1
MAC
17%
24%
60%
|
93 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2012 |
MAC
3 - 1
QPR
85%
11%
4%
|
93 | 76 | 17 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2012 |
LIV
2 - 2
MAC
33%
26%
41%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2012 |
SOU
4 - 1
ASV
34%
26%
40%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2012 |
ASV
2 - 0
SWA
55%
24%
21%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
NEW
1 - 1
ASV
57%
22%
21%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2012 |
ASV
3 - 0
TRA
79%
15%
6%
|
83 | 59 | 24 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
ASV
1 - 3
EVE
34%
28%
38%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | -1 |