NIFL Premiership Championship round Round 1

Linfield vs Crusaders analysis

Linfield Crusaders
71 ELO 71
-2.9% Tilt 6.3%
1508º General ELO ranking 1594º
Country ELO ranking 10º
ELO win probability
43%
Linfield
26.4%
Draw
30.5%
Crusaders

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
43%
Win probability
Linfield
1.4
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.3%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.8%
1-0
11%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
30.5%
Win probability
Crusaders
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Linfield
+16%
-8%
Crusaders

Points and table prediction

Linfield
Their league position
Crusaders
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
74
67
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Larne
83
11
100%
Glentoran
71
8
55.5%
Linfield
74
7
55.5%
Crusaders
67
6
55.5%
Cliftonville
68
3
60%
Coleraine
59
2
60%
Expected probabilities
Linfield
Crusaders
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
0% 0%
Conference League knock out round
0% 44.5%
Play-offs
100% 55.5%

ELO progression

Linfield
Crusaders
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Linfield
Linfield
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
24 Mar. 2023
DUN
Dungannon Swifts
0 - 5
Linfield
LIN
16%
23%
61%
71 54 17 0
18 Mar. 2023
LIN
Linfield
7 - 0
Newry City
NEW
73%
18%
9%
71 53 18 0
12 Mar. 2023
LIN
Linfield
2 - 0
Coleraine
COL
42%
25%
33%
71 71 0 0
07 Mar. 2023
LAR
Larne
0 - 0
Linfield
LIN
42%
27%
31%
71 71 0 0
25 Feb. 2023
LIN
Linfield
2 - 0
Coleraine
COL
43%
27%
30%
71 71 0 0

Matches

Crusaders
Crusaders
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
01 Apr. 2023
DUN
Dungannon Swifts
0 - 1
Crusaders
CRU
15%
19%
66%
71 53 18 0
25 Mar. 2023
CRU
Crusaders
3 - 0
Carrick Rangers
CAR
73%
17%
10%
71 55 16 0
18 Mar. 2023
POR
Portadown
2 - 2
Crusaders
CRU
10%
20%
70%
71 49 22 0
13 Mar. 2023
CRU
Crusaders
2 - 2
Cliftonville
CLI
47%
26%
28%
71 71 0 0
04 Mar. 2023
CRU
Crusaders
1 - 0
Glentoran
GLE
49%
23%
28%
70 70 0 +1