Europa Conference League qualifiers Third Round Final
First leg 3-2
Levadia vs Differdange 03 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.4%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.2%
19.8%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Levadia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 2025 |
DIF
2 - 3
LEV
28%
24%
48%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2025 |
LEV
2 - 0
KUR
63%
21%
16%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2025 |
SAB
2 - 2
LEV
40%
24%
36%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Jul. 2025 |
LEV
1 - 0
SAB
50%
23%
26%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | +1 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
LEV
3 - 0
HJP
49%
24%
27%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Differdange 03
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 2025 |
DIF
2 - 3
LEV
28%
24%
48%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2025 |
DIF
1 - 0
ATE
46%
26%
28%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2025 |
DIF
1 - 0
TNS
44%
23%
33%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | +1 |
| 23 Jul. 2025 |
TNS
0 - 1
DIF
56%
20%
25%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | +1 |
| 15 Jul. 2025 |
DIF
2 - 3
FCD
46%
25%
29%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | -1 |