Keith vs Arbroath analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
13%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.1%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.9%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.9%
69.1%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23%
0-2
10.8%
1-3
7.5%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.5%
0-3
8.3%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.7%
0-4
4.8%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.2%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.1%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Keith
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2011 |
WIC
0 - 1
KEI
66%
18%
16%
|
32 | 42 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2011 |
STC
0 - 2
KEI
27%
23%
50%
|
31 | 21 | 10 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2010 |
KEI
0 - 3
SPA
12%
17%
71%
|
32 | 58 | 26 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 2010 |
VAL
1 - 3
KEI
56%
22%
23%
|
30 | 36 | 6 | +2 |
| 28 Nov. 2009 |
EDI
3 - 1
KEI
73%
17%
11%
|
30 | 48 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Arbroath
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2011 |
STI
0 - 1
ARB
28%
24%
48%
|
59 | 48 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2011 |
ARB
4 - 3
DUM
66%
19%
14%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2011 |
ARB
1 - 0
STE
60%
21%
19%
|
58 | 54 | 4 | +1 |
| 22 Oct. 2011 |
ALB
1 - 0
ARB
24%
25%
51%
|
59 | 50 | 9 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 2011 |
FOR
1 - 1
ARB
37%
24%
39%
|
59 | 53 | 6 | 0 |