Série D Brazil . Quarter-finals
Global 1-3
Ituano vs CSA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.1%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.9%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.3%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.3%
1-0
14.9%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.2%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
21.8%
13.1%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-24%
-18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ituano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2016 |
ITU
0 - 0
PAU
58%
24%
19%
|
56 | 50 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2016 |
ITU
0 - 1
INT
62%
22%
16%
|
57 | 49 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Aug. 2016 |
INT
3 - 5
ITU
35%
27%
38%
|
56 | 50 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2016 |
SAO
2 - 1
ITU
76%
17%
7%
|
57 | 79 | 22 | -1 |
| 07 Aug. 2016 |
BRA
0 - 0
ITU
52%
25%
24%
|
58 | 61 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
CSA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2016 |
ALT
2 - 0
CSA
44%
26%
30%
|
49 | 45 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2016 |
CSA
3 - 0
ALT
57%
22%
21%
|
48 | 46 | 2 | +1 |
| 31 Jul. 2016 |
CSA
3 - 0
PAR
70%
18%
12%
|
48 | 39 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2016 |
PAR
1 - 2
CSA
32%
28%
40%
|
48 | 40 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2016 |
CSA
1 - 1
PAR
68%
19%
13%
|
48 | 40 | 8 | 0 |