Italia U21 vs Gales U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
73.1%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
7.2%
3-0
10.6%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
15%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
18%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
18%
9%
Win probability
0.59
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italia U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 2010 |
BIH
0 - 1
ITA
13%
21%
67%
|
81 | 53 | 28 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2010 |
ITA
2 - 2
DEN
66%
21%
13%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2010 |
ITA
2 - 0
HUN
69%
21%
10%
|
81 | 61 | 20 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2009 |
LUX
0 - 4
ITA
13%
21%
66%
|
81 | 25 | 56 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2009 |
HUN
2 - 0
ITA
20%
24%
56%
|
82 | 59 | 23 | -1 |
Matches
Gales U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 2010 |
HUN
0 - 1
WAL
50%
23%
28%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2010 |
MLT
1 - 1
WAL
17%
21%
62%
|
60 | 38 | 22 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2010 |
AUT
1 - 0
WAL
50%
23%
27%
|
61 | 64 | 3 | -1 |
| 18 Nov. 2009 |
BIH
2 - 1
WAL
31%
24%
45%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2009 |
WAL
2 - 0
BIH
63%
21%
17%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | 0 |