Conmebol Sudamericana . Quarter-finals
Global 3-4
Independiente vs U. Católica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.3%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
24%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24%
22.7%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2012 |
LFC
1 - 2
IND
40%
26%
34%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
ARG
0 - 1
IND
40%
29%
31%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
IND
2 - 0
RAF
41%
28%
31%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2012 |
CAU
1 - 2
IND
37%
28%
35%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2012 |
IND
2 - 1
LFC
51%
25%
25%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2012 |
CSL
2 - 2
UCO
39%
26%
35%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2012 |
ATL
3 - 1
UCO
46%
24%
30%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
UCO
0 - 2
HUA
43%
25%
33%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | -1 |
| 18 Oct. 2012 |
UCO
4 - 1
MAG
83%
12%
5%
|
74 | 53 | 21 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
UCO
3 - 2
ACS
42%
23%
36%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |