Ideal vs Fayal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76.5%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.4%
4-0
6.6%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.3%
3-0
10.6%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.1%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
15.1%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.1%
8.4%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.2%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ideal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
AGU
1 - 5
IDE
10%
18%
72%
|
30 | 11 | 19 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2012 |
IDE
0 - 1
PRA
25%
24%
52%
|
31 | 44 | 13 | -1 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
SCG
2 - 0
IDE
20%
22%
57%
|
33 | 21 | 12 | -2 |
| 14 Jan. 2012 |
IDE
0 - 1
PRA
67%
19%
14%
|
34 | 25 | 9 | -1 |
| 18 Dec. 2011 |
BOA
0 - 0
IDE
27%
23%
49%
|
34 | 25 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Fayal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
FAY
1 - 3
SAN
17%
21%
62%
|
19 | 36 | 17 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2012 |
FAY
3 - 2
AGU
80%
13%
7%
|
18 | 11 | 7 | +1 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
PRA
1 - 0
FAY
83%
12%
5%
|
19 | 44 | 25 | -1 |
| 07 Jan. 2012 |
FAY
3 - 0
SCG
31%
24%
45%
|
17 | 22 | 5 | +2 |
| 18 Dec. 2011 |
PRA
5 - 1
FAY
71%
17%
12%
|
18 | 25 | 7 | -1 |