FA Trophy . 1/256
Global 2-5
Herne Bay vs Harrow Borough analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.8%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.4%
22%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22%
59%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
0-1
10.6%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
10.1%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18.1%
0-3
6.4%
1-4
3%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.1%
0-4
3.1%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.4%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Herne Bay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2016 |
HER
3 - 0
CHI
56%
22%
22%
|
20 | 17 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2016 |
HAS
7 - 0
HER
68%
18%
14%
|
21 | 28 | 7 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 2016 |
GOD
3 - 2
HER
27%
25%
49%
|
22 | 18 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2016 |
BAR
0 - 1
HER
54%
22%
23%
|
22 | 29 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2016 |
HER
2 - 3
CAR
27%
24%
49%
|
23 | 28 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Harrow Borough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 2016 |
HAR
2 - 0
HAR
47%
23%
30%
|
37 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2016 |
HAR
4 - 1
FOL
43%
24%
33%
|
34 | 35 | 1 | +3 |
| 18 Oct. 2016 |
MAR
1 - 3
HAR
58%
21%
21%
|
32 | 40 | 8 | +2 |
| 15 Oct. 2016 |
HAR
2 - 2
MAR
27%
24%
49%
|
32 | 40 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2016 |
HAR
0 - 0
BIL
22%
24%
54%
|
32 | 42 | 10 | 0 |