Recopa Sudamerica . Final
Global 1-1
Grêmio vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.7%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.7%
26.6%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2018 |
VER
2 - 1
GRE
11%
21%
68%
|
84 | 54 | 30 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2018 |
IND
1 - 1
GRE
45%
27%
29%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2018 |
GRE
2 - 1
BRA
70%
20%
10%
|
84 | 64 | 20 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2018 |
GRE
0 - 1
CRU
81%
14%
5%
|
84 | 53 | 31 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2018 |
ECS
2 - 0
GRE
9%
20%
71%
|
85 | 49 | 36 | -1 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb. 2018 |
TEM
0 - 0
IND
19%
27%
54%
|
84 | 69 | 15 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2018 |
IND
1 - 1
GRE
45%
27%
29%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2018 |
COL
0 - 1
IND
31%
27%
42%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2018 |
IND
1 - 2
EST
55%
25%
19%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2018 |
IND
1 - 1
CEN
49%
26%
25%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |