Cup Paulista . Quarter-finals
Global 3-3
Ferroviária vs Novorizontino analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.6%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.9%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
24.6%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviária
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2018 |
NOV
1 - 1
FER
32%
26%
42%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2018 |
FER
2 - 0
SAO
57%
24%
20%
|
60 | 55 | 5 | +1 |
| 17 Oct. 2018 |
JUV
0 - 2
FER
21%
26%
53%
|
60 | 48 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2018 |
FER
0 - 1
OLI
61%
22%
17%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 2018 |
OLI
1 - 5
FER
29%
26%
45%
|
60 | 53 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Novorizontino
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2018 |
NOV
1 - 1
FER
32%
26%
42%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2018 |
ITU
1 - 2
NOV
44%
25%
31%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | +1 |
| 17 Oct. 2018 |
NOV
2 - 2
TAU
33%
24%
43%
|
54 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2018 |
NOV
1 - 0
XVD
35%
26%
39%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 2018 |
XVD
1 - 2
NOV
54%
23%
23%
|
52 | 58 | 6 | +1 |