Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
29.8%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.3%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.3%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
45.5%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.2%
0-2
7.5%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.7%
0-3
4%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.3%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
3º
7º
6º
76
1º
5º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2024 |
NEX
3 - 1
FCA
28%
24%
49%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 2
SCH
54%
23%
23%
|
69 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
BEL
5 - 2
FCA
16%
22%
62%
|
70 | 59 | 11 | -1 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
FCA
2 - 2
FCD
44%
25%
31%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
FCA
2 - 0
BAD
73%
17%
10%
|
69 | 54 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr. 2024 |
THU
1 - 0
BEL
70%
19%
11%
|
74 | 60 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
THU
4 - 0
NEX
62%
22%
16%
|
73 | 64 | 9 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 2024 |
FCV
1 - 0
THU
26%
24%
50%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
SIO
1 - 2
THU
48%
24%
28%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
THU
2 - 1
WIL
57%
23%
21%
|
72 | 65 | 7 | +1 |