Aarau vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
16.3%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.9%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
4.5%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.1%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
62.4%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
11.2%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
19.2%
0-3
7.3%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11%
0-4
3.5%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.9%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2009 |
GCZ
4 - 0
FCA
64%
22%
15%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2009 |
MUN
1 - 3
FCA
15%
22%
63%
|
66 | 39 | 27 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2009 |
FCA
2 - 4
FCL
38%
28%
34%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | -1 |
| 29 Aug. 2009 |
FCA
1 - 1
ZUR
19%
23%
58%
|
66 | 83 | 17 | +1 |
| 22 Aug. 2009 |
STG
1 - 0
FCA
57%
24%
19%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2009 |
BAS
4 - 0
STG
68%
18%
14%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2009 |
CHA
0 - 3
BAS
9%
15%
76%
|
83 | 35 | 48 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2009 |
BAS
2 - 0
ROM
30%
24%
46%
|
82 | 89 | 7 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 2009 |
BEL
2 - 3
BAS
24%
23%
53%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2009 |
BAS
1 - 2
YOB
42%
24%
33%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |