Etoile Carouge vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.8%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.6%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.6%
41.4%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.4%
0-3
3.3%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.5%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
54
1º
5º
3º
60
1º
10º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
69 | 72 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
60 | 63 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
54 | 54 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
51 | 52 |
4º
|
49.5% | |
|
5º
|
50 | 51 |
5º
|
24.5% | |
|
6º
|
50 | 51 |
6º
|
42% | |
|
7º
|
41 | 42 |
7º
|
68.5% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 42 |
8º
|
68.5% | |
|
9º
|
35 | 35 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 29 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Etoile Carouge
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May. 2025 |
NEX
1 - 2
ETO
36%
26%
38%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2025 |
ETO
1 - 2
STA
40%
26%
34%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2025 |
FCV
1 - 0
ETO
45%
26%
30%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
ETO
0 - 2
SCH
65%
21%
15%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2025 |
WIL
2 - 2
ETO
37%
27%
37%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May. 2025 |
FCA
2 - 4
WIL
50%
24%
26%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2025 |
THU
2 - 1
FCA
52%
23%
25%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2025 |
SCH
1 - 1
FCA
19%
22%
59%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
FCA
2 - 2
FCV
44%
25%
31%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2025 |
NEX
1 - 1
FCA
23%
23%
54%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |