CAF Champions . Final
Global 4-3
ES Tunis vs Al-Ahly analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.4%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.9%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.7%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.8%
26.8%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ES Tunis
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2018 |
ALA
3 - 1
ESP
59%
23%
19%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2018 |
CSH
0 - 2
ESP
10%
25%
64%
|
81 | 57 | 24 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2018 |
ESP
4 - 2
PRI
62%
22%
17%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2018 |
CSS
2 - 0
ESP
44%
27%
29%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2018 |
PRI
1 - 0
ESP
27%
29%
44%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | -2 |
Matches
Al-Ahly
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2018 |
ALA
3 - 1
ESP
59%
23%
19%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2018 |
ALA
2 - 2
WAS
67%
19%
13%
|
82 | 70 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2018 |
SET
2 - 1
ALA
36%
27%
37%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2018 |
ALA
3 - 2
ALT
88%
9%
4%
|
83 | 60 | 23 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2018 |
ALA
3 - 4
ALI
72%
18%
10%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |