Derby County vs Reading analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
66.4%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.2%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.2%
13.4%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2016 |
HAR
1 - 2
DER
10%
18%
73%
|
77 | 50 | 27 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 2016 |
MID
2 - 0
DER
42%
27%
31%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | -1 |
| 29 Dec. 2015 |
LEE
2 - 2
DER
24%
27%
49%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2015 |
DER
2 - 0
FUL
64%
21%
15%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2015 |
IPS
0 - 1
DER
35%
28%
38%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Reading
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2016 |
HUR
2 - 2
REA
39%
25%
36%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 2016 |
REA
1 - 0
BRI
44%
26%
30%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2015 |
REA
1 - 2
BRE
40%
27%
33%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2015 |
WOL
1 - 0
REA
53%
24%
23%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Dec. 2015 |
REA
1 - 0
BBU
32%
28%
41%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | +1 |