Derby County vs Nottingham Forest analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.1%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.8%
22.1%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2018 |
WIG
0 - 1
DER
32%
28%
40%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2018 |
DER
2 - 1
SWA
45%
27%
28%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 Nov. 2018 |
STO
2 - 1
DER
52%
25%
23%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
| 24 Nov. 2018 |
SHW
1 - 2
DER
34%
27%
39%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
| 10 Nov. 2018 |
DER
0 - 3
ASV
55%
24%
20%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Nottingham Forest
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2018 |
NTT
0 - 1
PNE
46%
25%
29%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2018 |
NTT
2 - 0
IPS
67%
21%
12%
|
67 | 55 | 12 | +1 |
| 28 Nov. 2018 |
ASV
5 - 5
NTT
50%
25%
25%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2018 |
HUL
0 - 2
NTT
38%
27%
36%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
| 10 Nov. 2018 |
NTT
0 - 0
STO
27%
27%
47%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |