Derby County vs Nottingham Forest analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50.5%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
24.9%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 2009 |
MUD
4 - 2
DER
82%
13%
5%
|
71 | 96 | 25 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2009 |
DER
0 - 2
QPR
52%
25%
23%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2009 |
DER
1 - 0
MUD
14%
24%
62%
|
70 | 96 | 26 | +1 |
| 03 Jan. 2009 |
FOR
3 - 4
DER
27%
24%
50%
|
70 | 54 | 16 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2008 |
DER
0 - 1
IPS
46%
26%
28%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Nottingham Forest
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan. 2009 |
NTT
2 - 0
PLY
50%
27%
23%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2009 |
CHA
0 - 2
NTT
53%
25%
22%
|
70 | 69 | 1 | +1 |
| 03 Jan. 2009 |
MAC
0 - 3
NTT
76%
16%
8%
|
68 | 86 | 18 | +2 |
| 28 Dec. 2008 |
NOR
2 - 3
NTT
49%
26%
25%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2008 |
NTT
2 - 4
DON
50%
27%
23%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | -1 |