Comercial vs Nacional SP analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.9%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.5%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.5%
1-0
14.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.9%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
22.3%
14.8%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-41%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2021 |
BAT
1 - 3
COM
23%
26%
51%
|
53 | 43 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2021 |
COM
1 - 1
PEN
64%
22%
15%
|
53 | 42 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2021 |
VOT
2 - 2
COM
37%
27%
36%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
COM
0 - 2
NOR
49%
26%
25%
|
54 | 52 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 2021 |
COM
0 - 0
OLI
68%
20%
12%
|
55 | 42 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Nacional SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2021 |
PEN
1 - 1
NAC
41%
25%
34%
|
43 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2021 |
NAC
1 - 2
VOT
40%
26%
35%
|
44 | 49 | 5 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2021 |
BAT
4 - 2
NAC
30%
26%
44%
|
46 | 41 | 5 | -2 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
NAC
3 - 1
RIO
52%
23%
25%
|
45 | 42 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Mar. 2021 |
NAC
2 - 3
DES
44%
25%
31%
|
46 | 48 | 2 | -1 |