Comercial vs Itapirense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
52.6%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.1%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
21.8%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2016 |
SER
4 - 0
COM
42%
27%
31%
|
49 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2016 |
INT
4 - 1
COM
34%
28%
37%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | -2 |
| 03 Mar. 2016 |
COM
1 - 1
GRE
44%
26%
30%
|
51 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2016 |
GUA
1 - 5
COM
46%
26%
28%
|
50 | 46 | 4 | +1 |
| 26 Feb. 2016 |
COM
0 - 1
MAT
42%
25%
33%
|
50 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Itapirense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 2016 |
FLA
2 - 0
ITA
50%
25%
25%
|
47 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2016 |
ITA
4 - 3
SJS
49%
25%
26%
|
47 | 45 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2016 |
GUA
0 - 0
ITA
50%
25%
26%
|
47 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2016 |
MAT
2 - 1
ITA
61%
21%
17%
|
47 | 52 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2016 |
ITA
1 - 0
NOR
46%
26%
28%
|
47 | 45 | 2 | 0 |