Monte Carlo vs Alfândega analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
77.9%
Win probability
3.11
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.3%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.1%
5-0
3.8%
6-1
2.1%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
6.4%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
4%
6-2
1.1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
11.3%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
2.1%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.7%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.4%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.5%
12.7%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
5.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
12.7%
9.4%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
6.2%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Monte Carlo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr. 2018 |
MCA
0 - 1
CHF
74%
15%
11%
|
45 | 37 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2018 |
MCA
0 - 2
BEN
56%
20%
25%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | +13 |
| 03 Mar. 2018 |
CPK
4 - 2
MCA
49%
20%
31%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2018 |
MCA
4 - 0
LAI
74%
14%
13%
|
32 | 27 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2018 |
WAK
2 - 0
MCA
49%
22%
30%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Alfândega
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2018 |
HSA
2 - 1
ALF
63%
19%
19%
|
23 | 25 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2018 |
ALF
0 - 3
CHF
28%
22%
50%
|
26 | 32 | 6 | -3 |
| 02 Mar. 2018 |
BEN
9 - 0
ALF
76%
14%
10%
|
27 | 32 | 5 | -1 |
| 25 Feb. 2018 |
ALF
0 - 9
CPK
29%
21%
50%
|
28 | 32 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2018 |
LAI
0 - 3
ALF
59%
19%
21%
|
26 | 27 | 1 | +2 |