CD Derio vs SD Gernika analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
18.2%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.6%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.5%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.2%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.4%
59.4%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
10.8%
1-3
6.1%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
18.3%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
10%
0-4
3.1%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
4.3%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD Derio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2025 |
CDD
2 - 0
SAM
28%
26%
47%
|
40 | 46 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2025 |
CDD
0 - 0
SNT
40%
26%
34%
|
40 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2025 |
CDD
0 - 0
SNT
40%
25%
35%
|
40 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
DAC
1 - 1
CDD
52%
25%
24%
|
40 | 41 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2025 |
CDD
2 - 1
CDP
62%
21%
17%
|
39 | 31 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
SD Gernika
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2025 |
SDA
2 - 2
GER
81%
13%
6%
|
50 | 70 | 20 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2025 |
GER
3 - 0
RSO
57%
23%
21%
|
49 | 44 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 2025 |
SUB
2 - 2
GER
33%
25%
43%
|
49 | 43 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2025 |
GER
2 - 1
BAR
36%
27%
37%
|
48 | 53 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 Apr. 2025 |
ANG
0 - 0
GER
31%
25%
44%
|
48 | 42 | 6 | 0 |