Castro B vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
79.5%
Win probability
2.92
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.8%
5-0
4.1%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.1%
4-0
7.1%
5-1
3.5%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
11.3%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.3%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.3%
12.6%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
12.6%
7.8%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
2%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.6%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castro B
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2021 |
CAZ
0 - 2
CAS
7%
14%
79%
|
19 | 10 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2021 |
NUE
0 - 3
CAS
6%
13%
81%
|
19 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2021 |
CEL
0 - 4
CAS
9%
15%
77%
|
19 | 10 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov. 2021 |
COM
4 - 2
FRI
72%
16%
12%
|
12 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2021 |
CAZ
0 - 0
COM
27%
23%
50%
|
12 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2021 |
COM
3 - 0
CAT
61%
20%
19%
|
11 | 9 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Mar. 2020 |
MAT
5 - 2
COM
65%
18%
18%
|
12 | 15 | 3 | -1 |
| 29 Feb. 2020 |
COM
8 - 1
BAL
71%
16%
13%
|
12 | 7 | 5 | 0 |