FA Cup 1/64
Global 4-2
Carlisle United vs Gillingham analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.2%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.9%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.6%
32.8%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Carlisle United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec. 2017 |
CUM
1 - 2
POR
62%
21%
17%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2017 |
NEW
3 - 3
CUM
41%
26%
34%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2017 |
GIL
1 - 1
CUM
48%
23%
29%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2017 |
CUM
1 - 1
MOR
67%
19%
14%
|
56 | 48 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2017 |
LUT
3 - 0
CUM
67%
19%
14%
|
57 | 65 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Gillingham
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec. 2017 |
GIL
4 - 1
BRO
41%
25%
34%
|
56 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2017 |
PLY
2 - 1
GIL
45%
25%
30%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 2017 |
GIL
1 - 2
OXF
30%
24%
46%
|
57 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2017 |
GIL
1 - 1
CUM
48%
23%
29%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2017 |
GIL
0 - 0
OLD
52%
25%
23%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | 0 |