Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
39.2%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.1%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.6%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.1%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
36.5%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.3%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.7%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+19%
+37%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
2º
5º
5º
92
1º
1º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
92 | 30 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 14 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 12 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
44 | 11 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
41 | 10 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
48%
25%
28%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
CON
1 - 1
CAE
52%
24%
25%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
48%
25%
27%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
COL
60%
21%
19%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CAE
69%
17%
14%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Feb. 2024 |
BRI
1 - 5
TNS
20%
20%
60%
|
67 | 55 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2024 |
BAL
0 - 1
TNS
40%
26%
35%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2024 |
TNS
3 - 0
NEW
62%
19%
19%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
FAL
0 - 1
TNS
41%
24%
36%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | -2 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
TNS
5 - 1
SWA
68%
16%
16%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | +2 |