Bury vs Morecambe analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.1%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.3%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
20.5%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bury
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
BCF
2 - 0
TRA
65%
21%
14%
|
60 | 52 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2014 |
EXE
2 - 1
BCF
27%
28%
46%
|
61 | 53 | 8 | -1 |
| 20 Sep. 2014 |
BCF
3 - 1
BUR
43%
27%
30%
|
61 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2014 |
BCF
2 - 1
STE
60%
23%
17%
|
60 | 55 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 2014 |
CUM
0 - 3
BCF
40%
26%
34%
|
59 | 52 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Morecambe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
SOU
0 - 1
MOR
53%
26%
21%
|
56 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2014 |
MOR
0 - 1
NOR
44%
27%
29%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2014 |
AFC
1 - 0
MOR
45%
25%
30%
|
57 | 54 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Sep. 2014 |
MAN
1 - 0
MOR
42%
25%
33%
|
58 | 55 | 3 | -1 |
| 13 Sep. 2014 |
MOR
2 - 1
PLY
44%
28%
29%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | +1 |