Basel vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.9%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.7%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.5%
2-0
13%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.2%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.6%
11.4%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2016 |
ARS
2 - 0
BAS
64%
20%
16%
|
84 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2016 |
STG
1 - 3
BAS
18%
21%
61%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2016 |
LAU
1 - 2
BAS
16%
21%
63%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 2016 |
ZUG
0 - 1
BAS
3%
9%
88%
|
83 | 34 | 49 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2016 |
BAS
1 - 1
LUD
63%
21%
16%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 2016 |
THU
2 - 2
LUG
45%
25%
31%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2016 |
THU
1 - 2
STG
51%
24%
25%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 2016 |
SIO
1 - 0
THU
57%
23%
20%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2016 |
THU
0 - 3
BAS
21%
22%
57%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2016 |
FCL
3 - 0
THU
60%
22%
18%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | -1 |