Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
58.4%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
19.8%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.1%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+21%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 2
BAS
27%
24%
50%
|
85 | 72 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2014 |
BAS
4 - 2
LAU
72%
18%
10%
|
85 | 65 | 20 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 3
BAS
28%
24%
48%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2014 |
YOB
3 - 1
BAS
35%
25%
40%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2014 |
BAS
3 - 1
FCL
57%
22%
21%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2014 |
STJ
1 - 1
FCL
40%
25%
35%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2014 |
FCL
1 - 1
SIO
50%
26%
24%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2014 |
FCL
1 - 1
STJ
55%
24%
21%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | -1 |
| 05 Jul. 2014 |
FCL
2 - 0
SPA
32%
26%
43%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2014 |
FCL
4 - 3
WIL
56%
23%
21%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |