Basel vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
48.2%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.3%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
28.5%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.1%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
6º
12º
9º
59
1º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 3
BAS
23%
22%
55%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 0
YOB
42%
25%
33%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
ZUR
0 - 0
BAS
44%
23%
33%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | +1 |
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
SGF
61%
21%
18%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 3
FCA
69%
18%
13%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
0 - 0
GCZ
52%
24%
23%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
STG
1 - 4
LUG
50%
23%
28%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 3
STA
61%
23%
16%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
1 - 1
FCP
81%
14%
5%
|
80 | 55 | 25 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
1 - 0
SCH
71%
18%
11%
|
80 | 61 | 19 | 0 |