Basel vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.2%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
15.3%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
3º
7º
5º
57
2º
10º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2022 |
BAS
2 - 1
BIF
62%
20%
18%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2022 |
BAS
0 - 0
YOB
39%
24%
37%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
BIF
1 - 0
BAS
24%
24%
53%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2022 |
CRU
1 - 1
BAS
24%
24%
52%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
BAS
1 - 1
SER
70%
18%
12%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2022 |
HBS
3 - 1
LUG
52%
23%
25%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 2
FCL
39%
26%
35%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
LUG
0 - 2
HBS
32%
27%
41%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | -1 |
| 31 Jul. 2022 |
WIN
1 - 4
LUG
26%
25%
49%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
GCZ
2 - 1
LUG
30%
25%
45%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |