Basel vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.7%
Win probability
2.13
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
13.6%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.5%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
18.5%
10.7%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2015 |
YOB
4 - 3
BAS
35%
23%
42%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2015 |
YFJ
1 - 4
BAS
9%
15%
76%
|
85 | 51 | 34 | -1 |
| 17 Sep. 2015 |
FIO
1 - 2
BAS
52%
23%
25%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 2015 |
BAS
2 - 1
STG
68%
19%
13%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2015 |
BAS
3 - 1
ZUR
60%
21%
19%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2015 |
LUG
0 - 0
ZUR
28%
25%
47%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2015 |
BEL
2 - 3
LUG
41%
25%
34%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 2015 |
SIO
3 - 0
LUG
59%
23%
18%
|
68 | 78 | 10 | -1 |
| 29 Aug. 2015 |
LUG
0 - 1
FCL
25%
24%
52%
|
69 | 79 | 10 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 2015 |
LUG
1 - 3
BAS
19%
21%
61%
|
69 | 84 | 15 | 0 |