Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.5%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.5%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.2%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.5%
11%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.9%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 2008 |
NEX
2 - 0
BAS
24%
23%
53%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2008 |
SHA
5 - 0
BAS
51%
23%
26%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | -1 |
| 22 Nov. 2008 |
THU
0 - 4
BAS
20%
23%
57%
|
84 | 65 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2008 |
BAS
1 - 1
ZUR
50%
23%
26%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2008 |
FCV
0 - 2
BAS
18%
22%
60%
|
84 | 61 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2008 |
FCA
1 - 1
YOB
23%
24%
53%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2008 |
FCA
0 - 1
BEL
55%
24%
21%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | -1 |
| 08 Nov. 2008 |
FCL
3 - 0
FCA
41%
28%
31%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | -1 |
| 02 Nov. 2008 |
FCA
2 - 1
NEX
49%
26%
25%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | +1 |
| 25 Oct. 2008 |
ZUR
4 - 0
FCA
63%
22%
16%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | -1 |