Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.7%
Win probability
2.73
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.6%
5-0
4.5%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.9%
4-0
8.2%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.3%
3-0
12%
4-1
5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.9%
2-0
13.2%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.2%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.3%
12.4%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
12.4%
5.9%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.5%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2007 |
BAS
0 - 0
SCH
82%
13%
5%
|
84 | 62 | 22 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2007 |
GCZ
1 - 5
BAS
39%
25%
37%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | +1 |
| 25 Feb. 2007 |
SIO
0 - 0
BAS
22%
23%
56%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2007 |
BAS
1 - 0
FCL
75%
15%
9%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2007 |
YOB
0 - 3
BAS
47%
23%
30%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2007 |
ZUR
2 - 2
FCA
78%
15%
7%
|
64 | 84 | 20 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2007 |
FCA
0 - 0
THU
35%
27%
39%
|
63 | 73 | 10 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 2007 |
GCZ
1 - 0
FCA
71%
19%
11%
|
64 | 81 | 17 | -1 |
| 18 Feb. 2007 |
FCA
3 - 2
SCH
48%
26%
26%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2007 |
STG
1 - 0
FCA
69%
19%
12%
|
64 | 76 | 12 | -1 |