Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
75.1%
Win probability
2.57
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.2%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.8%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.2%
9.6%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2004 |
ZUR
1 - 0
BAS
28%
25%
48%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2004 |
BAS
1 - 1
THU
77%
15%
9%
|
85 | 72 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2004 |
STG
1 - 1
BAS
30%
24%
46%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2004 |
BAS
6 - 0
NEX
76%
15%
9%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2004 |
BAS
2 - 2
GCZ
59%
20%
21%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2004 |
FCA
2 - 2
GCZ
25%
22%
53%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2004 |
YOB
2 - 2
FCA
62%
20%
17%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2004 |
FCA
0 - 1
SER
32%
25%
43%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | -1 |
| 29 Feb. 2004 |
WIL
1 - 1
FCA
51%
23%
26%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2004 |
THU
6 - 3
FCA
48%
24%
28%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |