Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
47.9%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.6%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.5%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.4%
26.7%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.5%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 1995 |
BAS
2 - 2
SER
54%
23%
24%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 1995 |
LUG
0 - 1
BAS
51%
25%
24%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Oct. 1995 |
BAS
0 - 3
ZUR
69%
19%
12%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 1995 |
FCL
3 - 1
BAS
47%
26%
26%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | -1 |
| 14 Oct. 1995 |
BAS
0 - 2
NEX
44%
26%
30%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 1995 |
FCA
5 - 0
LUG
54%
24%
22%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 1995 |
SER
2 - 1
FCA
43%
27%
30%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 1995 |
FCA
0 - 1
SIO
47%
25%
28%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 1995 |
YOB
0 - 4
FCA
46%
26%
28%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 1995 |
FCA
1 - 1
GCZ
37%
27%
36%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |