Ballarat Red Devils vs South Melbourne analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
14%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.9%
2-0
1.8%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.4%
1-0
3.9%
2-1
4%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.5%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18.6%
67.4%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.2%
0-2
10.6%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.1%
0-3
8%
1-4
4.1%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13%
0-4
4.5%
1-5
1.9%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6.7%
0-5
2%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ballarat Red Devils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2014 |
PAS
2 - 2
BRD
64%
19%
17%
|
19 | 24 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2014 |
HEU
4 - 2
BRD
66%
18%
16%
|
20 | 20 | 0 | -1 |
| 17 Apr. 2014 |
SOU
2 - 0
BRD
85%
10%
5%
|
20 | 36 | 16 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2014 |
NOR
1 - 3
BRD
84%
11%
5%
|
19 | 38 | 19 | +1 |
| 29 Mar. 2014 |
GOU
2 - 3
BRD
15%
20%
65%
|
19 | 11 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
South Melbourne
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2014 |
MEL
0 - 1
SOU
40%
24%
36%
|
37 | 33 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2014 |
SOU
2 - 0
BRD
85%
10%
5%
|
36 | 20 | 16 | +1 |
| 13 Apr. 2014 |
HUM
0 - 3
SOU
28%
24%
48%
|
35 | 27 | 8 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 2014 |
GRE
3 - 5
SOU
53%
23%
24%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 2014 |
POR
2 - 3
SOU
28%
23%
49%
|
34 | 25 | 9 | 0 |