Europa League . 1/16
Global 4-4
Atlético vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.1%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
10%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.6%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
21.7%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 1974 |
ATM
3 - 3
FCB
53%
25%
22%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1974 |
ATH
3 - 0
ATM
40%
29%
31%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | -1 |
| 23 Oct. 1974 |
DER
2 - 2
ATM
73%
17%
10%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1974 |
ATM
4 - 0
ZAR
70%
19%
11%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 1974 |
RMA
1 - 0
ATM
64%
21%
15%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 1974 |
LEE
0 - 1
DER
63%
22%
15%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1974 |
DER
2 - 3
MID
70%
18%
12%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 1974 |
DER
2 - 2
ATM
73%
17%
10%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1974 |
CUM
3 - 0
DER
26%
29%
44%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 1974 |
SHE
1 - 2
DER
45%
27%
28%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |