Cup Winners Cup 1/16
Global 3-2
Atlético vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.4%
Win probability
2.75
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.5%
5-0
4.2%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.7%
4-0
7.7%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
<0%
+4
11%
3-0
11.2%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.5%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.3%
12.9%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
12.9%
6.8%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.1%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 1975 |
ATM
4 - 1
SLA
80%
14%
7%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1975 |
ELC
3 - 1
ATM
31%
30%
39%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | -1 |
| 17 Sep. 1975 |
BAS
1 - 2
ATM
43%
27%
30%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 1975 |
ATM
2 - 2
SPO
73%
17%
10%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1975 |
ZAR
2 - 1
ATM
61%
22%
18%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1975 |
BAS
1 - 2
ATM
43%
27%
30%
|
71 | 85 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1974 |
CEL
4 - 2
BAS
79%
13%
8%
|
72 | 82 | 10 | -1 |
| 27 Feb. 1974 |
BAS
3 - 2
CEL
37%
24%
39%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | +1 |
| 07 Nov. 1973 |
BAS
6 - 4
BRU
16%
22%
63%
|
69 | 87 | 18 | +2 |
| 24 Oct. 1973 |
BRU
2 - 1
BAS
93%
5%
2%
|
69 | 87 | 18 | 0 |