Coppa Italia . Semi-finals
Global 3-1
Atalanta vs Bologna analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.9%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.3%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.5%
3-0
9%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.1%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.5%
11.6%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.2%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atalanta
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 1996 |
INT
1 - 0
ATL
60%
23%
17%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1996 |
PIA
2 - 2
ATL
45%
26%
29%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1996 |
BOL
1 - 1
ATL
35%
25%
40%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1996 |
ATL
0 - 1
ACM
26%
27%
47%
|
81 | 92 | 11 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 1996 |
NAP
2 - 0
ATL
55%
24%
20%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Bologna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 1996 |
BOL
0 - 0
VER
60%
23%
17%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1996 |
REG
0 - 1
BOL
37%
29%
34%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1996 |
BOL
1 - 1
ATL
35%
25%
40%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1996 |
BOL
0 - 0
SAL
60%
23%
17%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1996 |
PRG
2 - 1
BOL
47%
27%
26%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |