Spezia vs Pavia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.9%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
13.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.8%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
24.1%
18%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spezia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2011 |
SPE
2 - 0
REG
29%
28%
44%
|
49 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2010 |
USA
3 - 1
SPE
57%
24%
19%
|
50 | 56 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 Dec. 2010 |
SPE
0 - 0
ACL
26%
28%
46%
|
50 | 59 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2010 |
SOR
2 - 0
SPE
69%
19%
12%
|
51 | 60 | 9 | -1 |
| 28 Nov. 2010 |
SPE
1 - 0
PAG
47%
27%
25%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Pavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2011 |
PAG
1 - 1
PAV
49%
26%
25%
|
45 | 47 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2010 |
PAV
1 - 4
ACL
25%
28%
47%
|
45 | 59 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2010 |
REG
2 - 1
PAV
67%
21%
12%
|
46 | 59 | 13 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 2010 |
PAV
2 - 1
FCS
40%
27%
33%
|
45 | 47 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Nov. 2010 |
VER
0 - 0
PAV
70%
20%
10%
|
44 | 61 | 17 | +1 |