Tercera RFEF - Play Offs Ascenso Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Almería B vs Real Jaén analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
41.9%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.5%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.4%
32.7%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.6%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Almería B
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May. 2024 |
MAL
1 - 2
ALM
41%
25%
34%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
ALM
3 - 1
MAL
43%
26%
31%
|
43 | 45 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
ALM
1 - 0
UDT
48%
25%
28%
|
42 | 41 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
MAN
2 - 2
ALM
27%
24%
50%
|
43 | 34 | 9 | -1 |
| 01 May. 2024 |
ALM
14 - 1
AME
83%
11%
6%
|
43 | 14 | 29 | 0 |
Matches
Real Jaén
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May. 2024 |
RJA
0 - 0
UDT
63%
20%
17%
|
48 | 41 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
UDT
1 - 1
RJA
27%
26%
47%
|
48 | 40 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
CDE
1 - 2
RJA
22%
27%
51%
|
48 | 37 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
RJA
2 - 1
JUV
49%
24%
27%
|
47 | 47 | 0 | +1 |
| 01 May. 2024 |
TOR
1 - 1
RJA
23%
26%
51%
|
48 | 36 | 12 | -1 |