UCL Group D Round 2

Ajax vs Real Madrid analysis

Ajax Real Madrid
88 ELO 97
7.4% Tilt 25.8%
107º General ELO ranking
Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
11.3%
Ajax
18.1%
Draw
70.6%
Real Madrid

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
11.3%
Win probability
Ajax
0.76
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.5%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.5%
1-0
3.9%
2-1
3.2%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.2%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.1%
70.6%
Win probability
Real Madrid
2.21
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
12.6%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.2%
0-3
9.3%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.9%
0-4
5.1%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7.1%
0-5
2.3%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →

ELO progression

Ajax
Real Madrid
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Ajax
Ajax
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
29 Sep. 2012
AJA
Ajax
1 - 0
Twente
TWE
55%
22%
23%
88 87 1 0
26 Sep. 2012
UTR
Utrecht
0 - 3
Ajax
AJA
18%
21%
61%
88 78 10 0
23 Sep. 2012
ADO
ADO Den Haag
1 - 1
Ajax
AJA
13%
19%
68%
88 70 18 0
18 Sep. 2012
BVB
B. Dortmund
1 - 0
Ajax
AJA
47%
24%
29%
89 91 2 -1
15 Sep. 2012
AJA
Ajax
2 - 0
RKC Waalwijk
RKC
77%
15%
8%
88 74 14 +1

Matches

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
30 Sep. 2012
RMA
Real Madrid
5 - 1
RC Deportivo
DEP
94%
5%
1%
97 84 13 0
26 Sep. 2012
RMA
Real Madrid
8 - 0
Millonarios
MIL
94%
5%
1%
97 79 18 0
24 Sep. 2012
RAY
Rayo Vallecano
0 - 2
Real Madrid
RMA
6%
14%
80%
97 81 16 0
18 Sep. 2012
RMA
Real Madrid
3 - 2
Manchester City
MAC
80%
12%
7%
97 93 4 0
15 Sep. 2012
SEV
Sevilla
1 - 0
Real Madrid
RMA
12%
18%
70%
97 88 9 0