Eredivisie Round 3

Ajax vs Heracles analysis

Ajax Heracles
88 ELO 84
5.6% Tilt 18.7%
107º General ELO ranking 379º
Country ELO ranking 13º
ELO win probability
56.7%
Ajax
22.2%
Draw
21.1%
Heracles

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.7%
Win probability
Ajax
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.5%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.4%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.2%
21.1%
Win probability
Heracles
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Ajax
+1%
-3%
Heracles

ELO progression

Ajax
Heracles
Go Ahead Eagles
SC Telstar
NEC Nijmegen
Utrecht
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Ajax
Ajax
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
19 Jul. 2025
AJA
Ajax
3 - 2
KV Mechelen
KVM
50%
23%
27%
88 87 1 0
16 Jul. 2025
AJA
Ajax
2 - 1
PAOK
PAO
65%
19%
16%
88 81 7 0
12 Jul. 2025
AJA
Ajax
1 - 1
AGF Aarhus
AGF
62%
20%
18%
88 83 5 0
05 Jul. 2025
AJA
Ajax
6 - 3
Hibernian FC
HIB
66%
20%
15%
88 81 7 0
18 May. 2025
AJA
Ajax
2 - 0
Twente
TWE
42%
24%
34%
88 88 0 0

Matches

Heracles
Heracles
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
18 Jul. 2025
PRE
Preußen Münster
1 - 4
Heracles
HER
36%
25%
39%
84 81 3 0
12 Jul. 2025
HER
Heracles
2 - 1
FCV Dender
DEN
45%
23%
32%
84 83 1 0
08 Jul. 2025
HER
Heracles
1 - 1
BSV Kickers Emden
BSV
72%
17%
11%
84 71 13 0
05 Jul. 2025
ALS
Almelose Selectie
1 - 4
Heracles
HER
4%
12%
84%
84 10 74 0
18 May. 2025
HER
Heracles
1 - 2
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
37%
25%
38%
84 87 3 0