Cesena vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
35%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.6%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
<0%
+3
2.6%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.2%
+2
9.2%
1-0
15.5%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.5%
33.1%
Draw
0-0
16.9%
1-1
13.3%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
33.1%
31.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
14.5%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0%
-1
21.1%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.2%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cesena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1970 |
COM
0 - 0
CES
52%
26%
23%
|
61 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1970 |
CES
2 - 0
FCC
52%
27%
21%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Feb. 1970 |
CES
2 - 2
REG
35%
28%
37%
|
60 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1970 |
CES
1 - 0
ARZ
48%
27%
25%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1970 |
PRG
1 - 0
CES
58%
24%
18%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1970 |
VAR
0 - 0
TAR
72%
21%
8%
|
76 | 57 | 19 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1970 |
VAR
2 - 1
GEN
67%
23%
10%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | +1 |
| 01 Feb. 1970 |
LIV
0 - 0
VAR
27%
33%
40%
|
75 | 60 | 15 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1970 |
VAR
2 - 0
PIA
63%
22%
15%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1970 |
ASS
1 - 0
VAR
35%
32%
33%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | -1 |