9 de Octubre vs Vargas Torres analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.5%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
14.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.1%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
23.4%
16%
Win probability
0.76
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
1º
8º
5º
25
5º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
40 | 40 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
36 | 37 |
2º
|
51.5% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 35 |
3º
|
16% | |
|
3º
|
34 | 35 |
4º
|
16% | |
|
|
4º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
84.5% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 31 |
6º
|
83% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 29 |
7º
|
54% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 28 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
26 | 27 |
9º
|
54% | |
|
|
10º
|
25 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
18 | 18 |
11º
|
75.5% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 17 |
12º
|
75.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
9 de Octubre
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jul. 2025 |
CFC
1 - 0
OCT
30%
28%
43%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2025 |
OCT
3 - 0
GUA
49%
27%
24%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Jun. 2025 |
OCT
0 - 1
RIV
38%
29%
33%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2025 |
IMB
1 - 2
OCT
44%
26%
31%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2025 |
OCT
1 - 0
LFC
43%
30%
28%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Vargas Torres
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jul. 2025 |
CSV
1 - 0
IMB
26%
26%
48%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2025 |
LFC
3 - 2
CSV
41%
30%
29%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2025 |
CSV
2 - 1
JUL
61%
23%
16%
|
68 | 22 | 46 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 2025 |
CHA
3 - 3
CSV
37%
28%
35%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 2025 |
CSV
2 - 2
CAV
62%
23%
15%
|
68 | 22 | 46 | 0 |