Köln vs B. Dortmund analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.5%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.8%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
5%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.9%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
60.8%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.4%
0-2
9.4%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.5%
0-3
6.5%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.9%
0-4
3.4%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.1%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
42
3º
13º
11º
71
1º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
71 | 71 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
71 | 71 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
66 | 66 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
62 | 62 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
59 | 59 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
50 | 50 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
43 | 43 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
42 | 42 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
0% | |
|
13º
|
36 | 36 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
14º
|
35 | 35 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
34 | 34 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
33 | 33 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
31 | 31 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
29 | 29 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 100% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
BOC
1 - 1
KOL
24%
23%
54%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2022 |
KOL
4 - 2
SLO
48%
25%
27%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
KOL
0 - 1
FCU
34%
25%
41%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 2022 |
NIC
1 - 1
KOL
35%
24%
40%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
WOL
2 - 4
KOL
35%
25%
40%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
BVB
1 - 0
S04
73%
16%
11%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2022 |
MAC
2 - 1
BVB
78%
13%
9%
|
89 | 95 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
RBL
3 - 0
BVB
30%
23%
47%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2022 |
BVB
3 - 0
FCK
65%
19%
16%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2022 |
BVB
1 - 0
HOF
62%
20%
19%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |