Köln vs B. Dortmund analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.5%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.8%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
5%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.9%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
60.8%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.4%
0-2
9.4%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.5%
0-3
6.5%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.9%
0-4
3.4%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.1%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
42
3º
13º
11º
71
1º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
71 | 71 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
71 | 71 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
66 | 66 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
62 | 62 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
59 | 59 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
50 | 50 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
43 | 43 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
42 | 42 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
0% | |
|
13º
|
36 | 36 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
14º
|
35 | 35 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
34 | 34 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
33 | 33 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
31 | 31 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
29 | 29 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 100% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
RTV
1 - 1
KOL
24%
23%
54%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2022 |
KOL
4 - 2
SLO
48%
25%
27%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
KOL
0 - 1
FCU
34%
25%
41%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 2022 |
NIC
1 - 1
KOL
35%
24%
40%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
WOL
2 - 4
KOL
35%
25%
40%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
BVB
1 - 0
S04
73%
16%
11%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2022 |
MAC
2 - 1
BVB
78%
13%
9%
|
89 | 95 | 6 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
RBL
3 - 0
BVB
30%
23%
47%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2022 |
BVB
3 - 0
FCK
65%
19%
16%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2022 |
BVB
1 - 0
HOF
62%
20%
19%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |