Virtus Francavilla vs ACR Messina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.6%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.5%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.3%
16.1%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-34%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Virtus Francavilla
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2016 |
FCC
0 - 0
FRA
33%
29%
38%
|
52 | 47 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2016 |
FRA
2 - 0
PAG
56%
24%
20%
|
51 | 48 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Dec. 2016 |
FRA
3 - 1
SIR
39%
27%
34%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2016 |
FON
1 - 1
FRA
62%
21%
17%
|
50 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2016 |
FRA
1 - 0
REG
63%
21%
16%
|
50 | 42 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2016 |
MES
2 - 0
REG
55%
23%
22%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2016 |
SIR
2 - 0
MES
61%
22%
17%
|
47 | 51 | 4 | -1 |
| 17 Dec. 2016 |
MES
3 - 0
USV
64%
21%
14%
|
46 | 40 | 6 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2016 |
NUO
1 - 0
MES
63%
23%
15%
|
47 | 54 | 7 | -1 |
| 06 Dec. 2016 |
MES
0 - 3
LEC
18%
23%
59%
|
47 | 62 | 15 | 0 |