Homberg vs SF Baumberg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
16.9%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.2%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
4.7%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.2%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.4%
62.7%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.7%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
19%
0-3
7%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.4%
0-4
3.7%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.4%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-53%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
52
3º
15º
5º
70
1º
1º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
70 | 73 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 64 |
2º
|
57.5% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 63 |
3º
|
57.5% | |
|
4º
|
55 | 58 |
4º
|
57.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
52 | 55 |
5º
|
22.5% | |
|
5º
|
54 | 54 |
6º
|
48.5% | |
|
15º
|
34 | 53 |
7º
|
4.5% | |
|
7º
|
52 | 53 |
8º
|
23.5% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 45 |
9º
|
71.5% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 43 |
10º
|
38% | |
|
10º
|
41 | 42 |
11º
|
36% | |
|
11º
|
41 | 42 |
12º
|
55.5% | |
|
12º
|
37 | 38 |
13º
|
27% | |
|
13º
|
37 | 38 |
14º
|
21% | |
|
14º
|
35 | 36 |
15º
|
35% | |
|
16º
|
34 | 35 |
16º
|
52.5% | |
|
17º
|
33 | 34 |
17º
|
81.5% | |
|
18º
|
29 | 29 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Homberg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec. 2023 |
FCB
2 - 0
VFB
14%
18%
68%
|
39 | 18 | 21 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
SWE
3 - 1
VFB
49%
24%
27%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
VFB
2 - 1
SCH
36%
22%
42%
|
38 | 40 | 2 | +2 |
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
GRA
3 - 0
VFB
67%
19%
14%
|
38 | 47 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
VFB
3 - 2
MFC
63%
19%
18%
|
37 | 29 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
SF Baumberg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 2023 |
SFB
3 - 0
NET
69%
18%
14%
|
47 | 38 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
SFB
3 - 2
FCB
88%
8%
4%
|
46 | 18 | 28 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
HIL
0 - 1
SFB
51%
23%
26%
|
45 | 49 | 4 | +1 |
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
SFB
4 - 0
SCH
53%
22%
25%
|
43 | 40 | 3 | +2 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
STR
1 - 2
SFB
28%
24%
49%
|
43 | 40 | 3 | 0 |