Campeonato de Clubes Árabes Quarter-finals
First leg 2-3
USM Alger vs Al Arabi analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
71.5%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.3%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.6%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.3%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.4%
11.1%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.9%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+19%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
USM Alger
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2007 |
USM
1 - 0
EAN
64%
22%
14%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2007 |
ALA
3 - 2
USM
26%
26%
48%
|
77 | 62 | 15 | -1 |
| 05 Oct. 2007 |
TLE
1 - 4
USM
34%
29%
37%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | +1 |
| 30 Sep. 2007 |
USM
2 - 0
ALT
72%
18%
10%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2007 |
USM
4 - 0
MCS
71%
19%
10%
|
76 | 61 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Al Arabi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2007 |
KAZ
1 - 2
ALA
46%
26%
29%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2007 |
ALA
0 - 1
ALQ
46%
26%
28%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2007 |
ALA
3 - 2
USM
26%
26%
48%
|
62 | 77 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2007 |
ALA
1 - 2
ALK
47%
27%
27%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2007 |
ALA
0 - 0
ALS
43%
26%
32%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |